November 1, 2006

One year after North Korea exited from the six-party talks it agreed yesterday to come back to the six-party talks with the same confidence as they had when they had the missile tests in July and the nuclear test in October.   

North Korea has achieved its basic goal for participating in the six-party talks: to have a nuclear test without being substantially punished. Although the first nuclear test was not a big blast, the significance is the fact that North Korea has possessed some nuclear weapon in defiance of the worldwide condemnation.  Now Return to the six-party talks does not hinder the diplomatic interests or strategic interests of North Korea.  Indeed it has strengthened the North��s position and increased its bargaining chips to the United States.

China also has achieved its basic goal for hosting the six-party talks: to wait for the successful completion of the North Korean nuclear test and prevent North Korea from being severely punished. Restart the six-party talks is beneficial to China after North Korea has the capability of nuclear weapon. The North's new nuclear capability strengthens China's position. And a new round of the six-party talks will enhance the diplomatic status of China.  

Communist China and communist North Korea are the doubles champions of the six-party games.

In a new round of the six-party talks does the United States have sufficient means to force the North Korea to give up its nuclear capability newly attained?  

The United States administration is still focused on doing the job in Iraq, which is very hard and more costly both militarily and in time.  The administration appears to have no firm determination and sufficient resources to effectively deal with the North Korean nuclear issue. 

Even long after the United States withdraw from Iraq it will still be confronted with a difficult choice whether to deal with Iran first or North Korea first on nuclear issues since it seems to be beyond the capability of the United States to deal with both at the same time.

As a regional power Iran is certainly more significant in geopolitics than North Korea but North Korea is more advanced in its development of nuclear capability than Iran. The two are dancing tango in nuclear games.  When the west powers dealing with Iran nuclear issue the North Korea helped alleviate it by testing its missiles in July.  One of the impacts of the missile tests of North Korea was to lessen the pressure the west put on Iran. Iran expressed its warm appreciation after the North Korean nuclear test and accelerated its uranium enrichment process in October. It is difficult to make a priority for the United States.

Strong hand in either Iran or North Korea has other ramifications. The United States would not help its relationship with Russia if it put heavy pressure on Iran and China would most likely take the side of Russia since China also has security interests and economic interests in Iran.  If the United States intensifies its pressure on North Korea it would offend China and Russia is more likely taking the side of China. 

The United States' forcing on North Korea may encourage some political forces in Taiwan to regard this as an opportunity to pursue Taiwan independence to which China might make a strong response. If China intends to help North Korea from "American imperialism" it may choose to put more pressure on Taiwan.  If that turns out being the case then the United States would have three hot spots instead of two in "post- Iraq War era".  

Would the players in Washington take these risks?

Former communist country Russia has taken a passive role in the six-party talks and one cannot expect Russia to put pressure on North Korea.  Japan in contrast is interested to increase the pressure but it does not have the military strength to force concession out of North Korea.  South Korea still sticks to the sunshine policy to the "brothers in North".

In the dynamics of six-party talks which country can provide solution to the North Korean nuclear issue?  

The United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution on October 14, 2006 to restrict North Korea to continuation of further nuclear and missile development. But the resolution fails to measures that completely, verifiably, and irreversibly end the North Korea's nuclear and missile activities.

Restart the six-party talks is more for the American domestic politics than diplomatically meaningful.  Right before the midterm election the United States administration needs to put up a positive face to the voters that the ineffective policy dealing with North Korean nuclear issue has made an advance. This advance has no substance.  

China and North Korea orchestrated the resumption of six-party talks before the midterm election to which has given the United States a way out but not likely any meaningful results can be expected.

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(The author, Fang Jue, is a Chinese political activist living in the United States.  [email protected])