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by Liang Jing The G20 Summit in London went beyond people’s expectations, becoming a turning point of the world economic order. Most notable at the summit was that the countries participating demonstrated uncharacteristically co-operative attitudes. Obama was surely a major factor promoting this development; he gave up the usual arrogance of the United States for a new attitude of listening carefully, a model of humility, winning the favor of the leaders of participating countries, including Russia. We still don’t know what Hu Jintao’s contribution to the summit was. I would say China made two contributions, one being in not leading with a challenge to the United States, and the other in financial assistance to the IMF, going beyond what had been promised in private negotiations. Face is the most important thing for Chinese people, and China, given face by all the countries, did not care about spending more money. China's mainstream elite talked most about the West’s recognition of China's great power status, and the international media discussion about G2 was the subject of keen speculation in the Chinese media. During the G20 summit, well-known CCTV anchorman Bai Yansong went to Washington to co-chair a special program on the G2 with CCTV staff posted there. What does the high dependence on two mega economies of China and the US bode for the future of the world economy, especially for building a new international economic order? Post-crisis, can the two economies provide sustainable support for building a more just and stable international economic order? How understanding of China and how sincere are those US elite who are keen to establish a G2 mechanism? Could there be a conspiracy in it? China's elite, having satisfied their great power vanity, will have to ponder these questions. On a program for which he was anchor, Bai Yansong openly stated that the G2 failed to thrill China. [1] This probably truly represents the thoughts of most Chinese people on the G2. While I don’t think supporters of the G2 are harboring a conspiracy, I accept China's indifference to it. I believe that Americans who support the G2 really want to cooperate with China, but the main motivation is to overcome the current difficulties. As for the future, that is a matter for the future. What may the future hold? Can the high dependence of the China and US economies be sustained? According to economic theory, China and the US have strong resource complementarity. True believers in the doctrine of comparative advantage hence remain optimistic about a complementary and mutually beneficial Sino-US economic outlook. Many other Chinese intellectuals like me, however, aren’t optimistic about it. The fact that the economies have become so deeply intertwined in recent years is largely down to joint negligence. Discriminating people in both countries now see that only if they both carry out profound reforms can they cast off dog-in-the-manger growth and trade models. The crux of the problem therefore is no longer Sino-American resource complementarities and comparative advantage, but the impact on their interaction of the major reforms that the two countries have to carry out. For China’s ruling elite, I would argue, supporting Obama’s ambitious reform program is deleterious, while the US will find it difficult to support China’s reform. While the U.S. hopes China will continue to lend it money to weather the storm, the direction of US reform is to reduce eating tomorrow’s grain today; therefore, while China will continue to lend money to the United States, it won't be, as in the past, to increase its employment at home, but instead to help the US to reduce its future reliance on China. * Liang Jing, “G2 yu shijie jingji xin zhixu de boyi qianjing” [G2 and the prospects of the new world economic order], , 12 April 2009 [梁京：“G2与世界经济新秩序的博弈前景”， ，2009年4月 12日).]. [1] Jieqi G20 fenghui hou de Zhong-Mei guanxi: G2 shuofa he Zhongguo dingwei” [Sino-US relations post- G20 summit: G2 line out of keeping with China's position (4)], , 4 April 2009 [： “解析G20峰会后的中美关系:G2说法不符合中国定位(4)”， ，2009年4月 4日 (http://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/kong/news/2009/04-04/1632494.shtml). Translation by David Kelly China Research Centre University of Technology Sydney © Copyright 2009 by Boxun News Top of Page |
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